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Michaelcix

12 Jun 2025 - 03:13 am

There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one
мальчик гей
A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic.

It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.”

Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition.

Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life.

The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world.

All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so.

For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November.

It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.
Why so many ghosts?
No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data.

The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center.

The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it.

Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time.

The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water.

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12 Jun 2025 - 12:44 am

Americans nearing retirement and recent retirees said they were anxious and frustrated following a second day of market turmoil that hit their 401(k)s after President Donald Trump’s escalation of tariffs.

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As the impending tariffs shook the global economy Friday, people who were planning on their retirement accounts to carry them through their golden years said the economic chaos was hitting too close to home.

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Some said they are pausing big-ticket purchases and reconsidering home renovations, while others said they fear their quality of life will be adversely affected by all the turmoil.

“I’m just kind of stunned, and with so much money in the market, we just sort of have to hope we have enough time to recover,” said Paula, 68, a former occupational health professional in New Jersey who retired three years ago.

Paula, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because she feared retaliation for speaking out against Trump administration policies, said she was worried about what lies ahead.
https://kra3.net
“What we’ve been doing is trying to enjoy the time that we have, but you want to be able to make it last,” Paula said Friday. “I have no confidence here.”

Trump fulfilled his campaign promise this week to unleash sweeping tariffs, including on the United States’ largest trading partners, in a move that has sparked fears of a global trade war. The decision sent the stock market spinning. On Friday afternoon, the broad-based S&P 500 closed down 6%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 5.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 2,200 points, or about 5.5%.

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12 Jun 2025 - 12:33 am

Americans nearing retirement and recent retirees said they were anxious and frustrated following a second day of market turmoil that hit their 401(k)s after President Donald Trump’s escalation of tariffs.

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As the impending tariffs shook the global economy Friday, people who were planning on their retirement accounts to carry them through their golden years said the economic chaos was hitting too close to home.

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Some said they are pausing big-ticket purchases and reconsidering home renovations, while others said they fear their quality of life will be adversely affected by all the turmoil.

“I’m just kind of stunned, and with so much money in the market, we just sort of have to hope we have enough time to recover,” said Paula, 68, a former occupational health professional in New Jersey who retired three years ago.

Paula, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because she feared retaliation for speaking out against Trump administration policies, said she was worried about what lies ahead.
https://kra-31-at.com
“What we’ve been doing is trying to enjoy the time that we have, but you want to be able to make it last,” Paula said Friday. “I have no confidence here.”

Trump fulfilled his campaign promise this week to unleash sweeping tariffs, including on the United States’ largest trading partners, in a move that has sparked fears of a global trade war. The decision sent the stock market spinning. On Friday afternoon, the broad-based S&P 500 closed down 6%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 5.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 2,200 points, or about 5.5%.

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12 Jun 2025 - 12:25 am

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Menú Bienvenido Nosotros Servicios Productos - Tintes GAMAS y CATALOGOS Anven Nutrapel Yellow Varios Pedidos FAQ .- Preguntas frecuentes Libro de Visitas Galería de fotos Descargas Contáctanos \| Más Vínculos ByC en Mercado Libre ByC en Twitter ByC en Facebook Nuestra reputacion	Si buscas hosting web, dominios web, correos empresariales o crear páginas web gratis, ingresa a PaginaMX Por otro lado, si buscas crear códigos qr online ingresa al Creador de Códigos QR más potente que existe Tweet Libro de Visitas Michaelcix 12 Jun 2025 - 03:13 am There’s a ‘ghost hurricane’ in the forecast. It could help predict a real one мальчик гей A scary-looking weather forecast showing a hurricane hitting the Gulf Coast in the second half of June swirled around social media this week—but don’t panic. It’s the season’s first “ghost hurricane.” Similar hype plays out every hurricane season, especially at the beginning: A cherry-picked, worst-case-scenario model run goes viral, but more often than not, will never come to fruition. Unofficially dubbed “ghost storms” or “ghost hurricanes,” these tropical systems regularly appear in weather models — computer simulations that help meteorologists forecast future conditions — but never seem to manifest in real life. The model responsible this week was the Global Forecast System, also known as the GFS or American model, run by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It’s one of many used by forecasters around the world. All models have known biases or “quirks” where they tend to overpredict or underpredict certain things. The GFS is known to overpredict tropical storms and hurricanes in longer-term forecasts that look more than a week into the future, which leads to these false alarms. The GFS isn’t alone in this — all models struggle to accurately predict tropical activity that far in advance — but it is notorious for doing so. For example, the GFS could spit out a prediction for a US hurricane landfall about 10 days from now, only to have that chance completely disappear as the forecast date draws closer. This can occur at any time of the year, but is most frequent during hurricane season — June through November. It’s exactly what’s been happening over the past week as forecasters keep an eye out for the first storm of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Why so many ghosts? No weather forecast model is designed in the exact same way as another, and that’s why each can generate different results with similar data. The reason the GFS has more false alarms when looking more than a week out than similar models – like Europe’s ECMWF, Canada’s CMC or the United Kingdom’s UKM – is because that’s exactly what it’s programmed to do, according to Alicia Bentley, the global verification project lead of NOAA’s Environmental Modeling Center. The GFS was built with a “weak parameterized cumulus convection scheme,” according to Bentley. In plain language, that means when the GFS thinks there could be thunderstorms developing in an area where tropical systems are possible – over the oceans – it’s more likely to jump to the conclusion that something tropical will develop than to ignore it. Other models aren’t built to be quite as sensitive to this phenomenon, and so they don’t show a tropical system until they’re more confident the right conditions are in place, which usually happens when the forecast gets closer in time. The western Caribbean Sea is one of the GFS’ favorite places to predict a ghost storm. That’s because of the Central American gyre: a large, disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms that rotates over the region and its surrounding water. 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Paula, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because she feared retaliation for speaking out against Trump administration policies, said she was worried about what lies ahead. https://kra3.net “What we’ve been doing is trying to enjoy the time that we have, but you want to be able to make it last,” Paula said Friday. “I have no confidence here.” Trump fulfilled his campaign promise this week to unleash sweeping tariffs, including on the United States’ largest trading partners, in a move that has sparked fears of a global trade war. The decision sent the stock market spinning. On Friday afternoon, the broad-based S&P 500 closed down 6%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 5.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 2,200 points, or about 5.5%. Donaldtraft 12 Jun 2025 - 12:33 am nexus site official link nexus shop url bitcoin dark web Albertflozy 12 Jun 2025 - 12:33 am Americans nearing retirement and recent retirees said they were anxious and frustrated following a second day of market turmoil that hit their 401(k)s after President Donald Trump’s escalation of tariffs. kra6 cc As the impending tariffs shook the global economy Friday, people who were planning on their retirement accounts to carry them through their golden years said the economic chaos was hitting too close to home. kraken6 Some said they are pausing big-ticket purchases and reconsidering home renovations, while others said they fear their quality of life will be adversely affected by all the turmoil. “I’m just kind of stunned, and with so much money in the market, we just sort of have to hope we have enough time to recover,” said Paula, 68, a former occupational health professional in New Jersey who retired three years ago. Paula, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because she feared retaliation for speaking out against Trump administration policies, said she was worried about what lies ahead. https://kra-31-at.com “What we’ve been doing is trying to enjoy the time that we have, but you want to be able to make it last,” Paula said Friday. “I have no confidence here.” Trump fulfilled his campaign promise this week to unleash sweeping tariffs, including on the United States’ largest trading partners, in a move that has sparked fears of a global trade war. The decision sent the stock market spinning. On Friday afternoon, the broad-based S&P 500 closed down 6%, the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 5.8%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 2,200 points, or about 5.5%. Peterheisy 12 Jun 2025 - 12:25 am A BetBra e uma casa de apostas oficial no Brasil desde 2025. Esta empresa oferece uma ampla gama de eventos esportivos para apostas, bem como transmissoes ao vivo de torneios internacionais e regionais. A BetBra tem uma plataforma online que funciona em dispositivos moveis, tablets e computadores. https://betbra-br.com/ Principais funcoes da plataforma: Grande variedade de eventos esportivos A plataforma oferece apostas em dezenas de esportes, incluindo futebol, volei, basquete, tenis, MMA e eSports. Todos os eventos estao disponiveis em um so lugar, eliminando a necessidade de procurar informacoes em diferentes sites. Apostas ao vivo (apostas em tempo real) betbra bet A possibilidade de apostar durante as partidas com estatisticas atualizadas e transmissoes ao vivo. Esse recurso permite que voce tome decisoes com base na situacao atual do jogo. Catalogo de eventos esportivos com filtros Os usuarios podem encontrar facilmente as partidas ou torneios de seu interesse usando filtros por esportes, ligas, datas e probabilidades. Estatisticas e analises abrangentes A plataforma fornece estatisticas detalhadas sobre times, jogadores e partidas anteriores, o que ajuda voce a tomar decisoes de apostas informadas. Suporte multilingue e localizacao A interface da plataforma esta disponivel em portugues e tambem oferece suporte ao real brasileiro (BRL) para a conveniencia dos usuarios locais. Variedade de tipos de apostas Os usuarios podem fazer apostas simples, apostas expressas, apostas de sistema e apostas especiais (por exemplo, no placar exato ou no numero de gols). Notificacoes de eventos A plataforma envia notificacoes sobre o inicio das partidas, mudancas nas probabilidades e resultados das apostas. Isso ajudara voce a nao perder eventos importantes. Aplicativo de apostas esportivas Um aplicativo pratico para iOS e Android permite que voce faca apostas e monitore os resultados a qualquer hora e em qualquer lugar. 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